More Rate Cuts Coming! - Best Mortgage Broker Rates

Following the substantial rate increases of 2022 and 2023, the 0.25% rate cut from the Bank of Canada on June 6th was a huge relief—especially for those with variable rate mortgages, giving them the break they’ve been waiting for.

Now begins the fun part: a downward trend in mortgage rates. But how many more cuts are coming, and how quickly will they arrive?

Current Rate Forecasts from the Big Six Banks

Of the big banks, five expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates by 0.75% by the end of 2024, while BMO forecasts a 0.50% cut. In 2025, additional cuts of 0.75% to 1.50% are predicted, depending on the bank.

Bank	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	Total
CIBC	-0.25%	-0.50%	-0.50%	-0.50%	-0.25%	-0.50%	-2.50%
RBC	-0.50%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.50%	-0.25%	N/C	-1.75%
Scotia	-0.50%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.25%	N/C	-1.50%
TD	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.50%	-0.50%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-2.00%
BMO	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.25%	N/C	-0.25%	-1.25%
National Bank	-0.25%	-0.50%	-0.50%	-0.50%	-0.25%	N/C	-2.00%

Even if the most aggressive forecasts become reality, these cuts are still far below the 4.75% hikes from March 2022 to July 2023. Rates are unlikely to return to pandemic-era lows, but the exact extent of future decreases remains uncertain.

Will Rates Continue Falling into 2026?

Expectations suggest rates may continue to decline, but predictions this far out are unreliable. As always, time will tell and anything can happen.

BoC Rate Cuts and Fixed Mortgage Rates

Many borrowers believe fixed mortgage rates move directly in line with the Bank of Canada overnight rate—but this is not the case. Fixed rates are primarily set by Government of Canada bond yields, which react to market expectations of rate changes.

• A BoC rate cut might not immediately reduce fixed mortgage rates.

• Bond yields can move independently, sometimes increasing even as the BoC cuts, and vice versa.

• As of today, fixed rates have dropped 0.05% to 0.15%, depending on the lender and product.

In general, BoC rates may fall faster than fixed mortgage rates, but fixed rates are expected to continue declining gradually.

Upcoming Rate Announcement

The next Bank of Canada announcement is expected on July 24th, which could see the second cut in this series.

Conclusion

After a long wait, the Bank of Canada has begun cutting rates. While predictions suggest a continued downward trend, the financial world remains unpredictable. Economists may be wrong in our favor, leading to deeper-than-expected cuts—but the timing is uncertain.

Borrowers should monitor rates closely and consider locking in if eligible.

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About the Author

Paul Meredith is the author of the Amazon #1 best-selling book Beat the Bank – How to Win The Mortgage Game in Canada, and has ranked among the top 75 mortgage brokers in Canada since 2016. He was a finalist for Mortgage Broker of the Year in 2018–2021 and 2023 and is the exclusive mortgage broker featured on seasons 2 and 5–7 of TV’s Top Million Dollar Agent (Global, Slice TV, and Rogers).